Sen Obama Vindicated on Iraq

Now that Iraq's PM is demanding a US pull out time table it would be interesting to see how Sen McCain and the Bushes spin this after years of saying If Iraq wanted us to leave we will leave... intriguing. Since PM Nuri al-Maliki is now calling what appears to be Bushes, the repugs and McSame's bluff.  Sit back and enjoy peeps...

McCain, Obama at odds over Iraqi withdrawal demand

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5icMg 7uJLrzdcOx0lcwi9lv2TA9LQ

WASHINGTON (AFP) -- Iraq's hardening demand for a pullout deadline for US troops on Tuesday sent shockwaves through the White House campaign, putting Republican hopeful John McCain on the defensive.
McCain, who says it is too early to leave Iraq, said US pull-backs must be dictated by security conditions, after Democrat Barack Obama said the Iraqi government now shared his desire for a timetable for withdrawals.
Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki said on Monday that Iraq was seeking such an arrangement in talks with Washington on the future US force structure in the country.

Iraq hardened its position on Tuesday, saying it would reject any security pact with Washington unless it set a date for the pullout of US-led foreign soldiers -- a condition turned down by President George W. Bush.
But McCain, who has made staunch support for the US troop "surge" escalation strategy a centerpiece of his campaign, said that recent security gains should not be put at risk by an artificial timetable.
"The Iraqis have made it very clear, including the meetings I had with the president and foreign minister of Iraq, that it is based on conditions on the ground," McCain said in an interview with MSNBC.
......

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Re: Sen Obama Vindicated on Iraq (2.00 / 1)

I'm pleased to see this Diary. Bush and McCain do not want to leave even when our hosts are asking us to. Why would they want to stay? WMD? OIL?......


by Politicalslave on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 12:56:34 AM EST

Mixed signals (2.00 / 2)

Just in the last couple of weeks we had their foreign minister sent by al- malaki to request behind doors that we not pull out. He did to both Barack and McCain.

I don't if malaki is just showboating in public for his people back in Iraq.

I just don't know.


He was warmly received by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who called him "a leader that God has blessed us with at this time."
by roxfoxy on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 01:01:10 AM EST

Re: Mixed signals (2.00 / 2)

You're seeing mixed signals because the Iraqi government is deeply factionalized (w/ ethnicity playing a huge role).  Here's the story in a nutshell.  

Shi'ites (Maliki is one) make up 60% of Iraq's population, if the US leaves they'll easily be the dominant faction in the national government, but they're split between "moderates" (those who would probably accept the current constitutional arrangement) and radicals (eg. Sadr, those who think Maliki and people like him are American stooges).  The Shi'ites are grateful that the US overthrew Hussein but from the beginning have opposed a long-term occupation.

Sunnis (Hussein was one) make up approx. 20% of Iraq's population, most have deep hatred to the US for toppling them from their position as members of the ruling class, but they also understand that if the US withdraws from Iraq the Shi'ites might target them again.

Kurds (Iraq's Foreign Minister is one) make up approx. 15% of Iraq's population, they understand that their long-term safety probably depends upon some sort of guarantee from the US, and many would be quite happy if the US stayed for a hundred years (though sentiment was starting to build 2 years ago for an eventual US withdrawal, not sure what polls show today).

And to make sense of Iraqi politics, it's necessary to understand that the national government, for the most part, is deeply split along these ethnic and factional lines (eg. Maliki didn't send Zebari, the Foreign Minister, to DC to plea for more time, they're genuinely at odds with each other, Maliki wants a timetable, Zebari doesn't).

And here's a crucial bit of info.  Iraq will hold national elections at the end of 2009.  In order to get another term as PM, Maliki might have to negotiate some sort of timetable with the US in order to appease other Shi'ite factions.  If he tries to conclude a status of forces agreement w/ the US which doesn't have one, the Iraqi parliament probably won't ratify it and he might get toppled (not suggesting any sort of coup, the other Shi'ite factions might not back him).

All of this, I'm suggesting, has been brewing for quite a while (it's not some sudden development, just one which seems curious because the US media hasn't been reporting on Iraqi politics lately w/ much detail).


by IncognitoErgoSum on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 01:31:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mixed signals (2.00 / 1)

So I guess the Kurds and the Sunnis don't want us to leave because they are afraid the shia's will push them out.

Then you hear that shia's are afraid that the radicals amongst them i.e. muqtada etc will take over as a majority shia faction in the parliament and push the moderate shia's out.


He was warmly received by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who called him "a leader that God has blessed us with at this time."
by roxfoxy on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 01:42:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mixed signals (none / 0)

Yeah, but that's politics, not insurrection.  We should have thought very carefully before promoting democracy in Shi'ite majority Iraq, methinks.  Small wonder Shi'ite theocracy Iran is feeling a bit aggressive and acting opportunisticly.  Or that insiders in the Gulf and among our European allies think we acted as though we were as mad as hatters in the first place.


by Shaun Appleby on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 02:02:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mixed signals (2.00 / 1)

I can't say I disagree with anything


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 01:43:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mixed signals (none / 0)

I seem to recall that the request for a pullout was made some time ago, in addition to the one now.  I'm an avid reader of the Wash Post and I recall such a story.  

In any event, this comes AFTER Obama softened his pullout stance, so I do not see how it vindicates him.

And, can anyone out there show me a contemporaneous account of Obama in 2002 saying we should not invade Iraq?  We only have his word for it that he made such a speech.  Anyone?


by strongerthandirt on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 09:29:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Are you kidding? (2.00 / 1)

He stood next to Jesse Jackson in Chicago Federal Plaza and spoke about opposing the war;

"What I am opposed to is the attempt by potential hacks like Karl Rove to distract us from a rise in the uninsured, a rise in the poverty state, a drop in the medium income--to distract us from corporate scandals and a stock market that has just gone thorough the worst month since the Great Depression. That's what I am opposed to. A dumb war. A rash war, a war based not on reason, but on passion, not on principle, but on politics."

"I know that even a successful war against Iraq will require a U.S. occupation of undetermined length, at undermined cost, with undetermined consequence of undetermined length, at undetermined cost, with undetermined consequence. I know that an invasion of Iraq without clear rationale and without strong international support will only fan the flames of the Middle East, and encourage the worst, rather than the best, impulses of the Arab world and strengthen the recruitment arm of al Qaeda."

What, do you think we all just made it up?


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 10:28:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sen Obama Vindicated on Iraq (none / 0)

Thats a lot of political posturing by Maliki , that much should be clear .

Obama is all over the map on Iraq , its hard to grant him much credibility on it as far as I am concerned.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 01:04:07 AM EST

Re: Sen Obama Vindicated on Iraq (none / 0)

What's clear is McCain wants to stay and Obama wants to leave.


by Politicalslave on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 01:13:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sen Obama Vindicated on Iraq (none / 0)

Thats not clear .

There is enough ambiguity in Obama's position to put your statement in doubt .


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 01:19:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sen Obama Vindicated on Iraq (none / 0)

McCain talking points. I will not vote for McCain.
McCain would like to define it as unclear but in actual fact it's very clear.
by Politicalslave on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 01:22:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sen Obama Vindicated on Iraq (none / 0)

Whoever you vote for is of no concern of mine .


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 01:30:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sen Obama Vindicated on Iraq (none / 0)

agreed


If you want Unity, nominate a Democrat
by rankles on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 03:15:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sen Obama Vindicated on Iraq (none / 0)

It seems a fair bit of your doubt about Obama's foreign policy is self-inflicted, or at least you are predisposed to uncertainty because you are accustomed to a foreign policy posture which is less nuanced and more aligned with your belief systems about our international relations and the necessity of aggressive postures toward perceived 'threats' to our national security.  The reality is far less simple.

I don't see any essential inconsistency in Obama's position, myself, though it is fashionable to assume their is one these days.  Sure he voted to withhold funds after voting to approve funding last year, but that was a corner both Hillary and Obama painted themselves into during the primary.  Read his original Senate bill S.433 from March 2007, for example.  It is very similar to his current posture, except, of course, for the timing:


             (2) SCOPE AND MANNER OF REDEPLOYMENT- The redeployment of the Armed Forces under this section shall be substantial, shall occur in a gradual manner, and shall be executed at a pace to achieve the goal of the complete redeployment of all United States combat brigades from Iraq by March 31, 2008, consistent with the expectation of the Iraq Study Group, if all the matters set forth in subsection (b)(1)(B) are not met by such date, subject to the exceptions for retention of forces for force protection, counter-terrorism operations, training of Iraqi forces, and other purposes as contemplated by subsection (g).

           (3) FORMULATION OF PLAN WITH MILITARY COMMANDERS- The redeployment of the Armed Forces under this section should be conducted pursuant to a plan formulated by United States military commanders that is developed, if practicable, in consultation with the Government of Iraq.

C'mon, where's the difference?  It's all just spin.


by Shaun Appleby on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 01:57:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sen Obama Vindicated on Iraq (none / 0)

Hey Shaun my point wasn't about flip flopping that is debateable  , the point I was making is that there has always been an ambiguity in his position that gave him wiggle room to not follow through on his perceived position by the voters .

His recent statements with regards to listening to the generals on the ground gives him flexibility to change if factors on the ground suddenly changes , which it has.

Consequently I personally feel it would be irresponsible of any leader to sacrifice the gains our young men and women in uniform have worked hard for and I believe he is more responsible than his rhetoric belies.

The ambuiguity of his position vis a vis factors on the ground , listen to commanders and iraqi's  should show that it is not a slam dunk he won't change his mind.

Whether it is a change in emphasis , tone or position as some claim , there is , as far as I am concerned a muddled position on Iraq coming from Obama now . He seems to be a lot closer to Mccainh now , with this whole rely on generals on the ground , the situation on the ground , the iraqi's having an input talk ,( which is a responsible position ) in my view.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 04:12:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sen Obama Vindicated on Iraq (2.00 / 3)

Well, let's just try to 'unmuddle' this for a moment.  The Commander-in-Chief directs the 'mission' of the entire US military apparatus, within the constraints of the Constitutional powers granted to the executive branch, an argument we will leave aside for a moment.  If the mission is to invade Iraq, 'pacify' the nation and it's citizens and depose it's despotic leader, that is exactly the key performance indicator the military is judged on.  We admire them for not questioning these goals but meeting them.

In Obama's administration the 'mission' will be different, but it will not be how to get the hell out of Iraq as soon as possible, it will be how to extricate ourselves from an unfortunate debacle which we should have never gotten into in the first place without bringing the roof in on our heads and taking what limited advantage the situation holds for us geopolitically while ensuring at least a decent chance of survival for the inhabitants.  A somewhat subtler challenge.

Now the tricky bit, and I hope I am with you here in spirit, how not to sacrifice the gains our young men and women in uniform have worked hard for.  That's not easy.  And I have no answers for that.  The Marines lost hundreds at Tarawa, a coral atoll in the Pacific, because the military planners failed to account for the distance of the Moon from the Earth during the neap tides in late November 1943.  A total of four thousand casualties, four Medals of Honor and lessons learned.  It set off a fire-storm of public controversy Stateside in the midst of a bitterly fought and unequivocally supported war.  The final verdict, from the 'father' of modern U.S. amphibious warfare?:


Writing after the war, Marine General Holland M. Smith asked, "Was Tarawa worth it?" "My answer," he said, "is unqualified: No. From the very beginning the decision of the Joint Chiefs to seize Tarawa was a mistake and from their initial mistake grew the terrible drama of errors, errors of omission rather than commission, resulting in these needless casualties."

Smith, Coral and Brass, pp. 111-12

The US went on to fight, and win, the Pacific war with only one thought on the subject of the unnecessary, or perhaps more accurately unfortunate, sacrifice at Tarawa, that it would never be repeated.  If the fallen at Tarawa are remembered it is by the survivors of Kwajalein, Eniwetok, Saipan, Peleliu, Iwo Jima and Okinawa, their families and descendants.  That's what we do, we learn the bitter lessons, remedy them and move forward, never forgetting the sacrifice made by those who made our subsequent victories possible.

Not much, I'll admit, but there it is.  Let's put Iraq back to rights as best we can and chuck the Taliban back out of Afghanistan before we waste our effort there as well.


by Shaun Appleby on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 07:24:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sen Obama Vindicated on Iraq (none / 0)

Excellently put.


by vadasz on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 09:33:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You really can't (none / 0)

have a cohesive policy on something so uncertain and unstable as Iraq.

Obama can't tell you what he's going to do, only what his plan is. He's not making promises he can't keep.

Who knows what could happen between now and then. Hell, Bush may decide the day before Election Day to bring all the troops home, or he may decide to bomb Iran and Iran will invade Iraq or something. We just don't know, so what do you expect him to do?


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 08:33:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sen Obama Vindicated on Iraq (none / 0)

I agree: Obama has consistently stated he'd pull out 1-2 brigades a month.  Why "one to two", why not just "one" or "two"?  Maybe he means three, as it's the sum of 1 and 2.  Then again, maybe he means the quotient and only wants to take out half a brigade per month.  Or... perhaps he misread his teleprompter and in fact wants to remove 12 per month! It's all so fuzzy to me!

(Yes this is snark)


by Homebrewer on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 03:50:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sen Obama Vindicated on Iraq (none / 0)

That was actually funny.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 03:51:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sen Obama Vindicated on Iraq (none / 0)

His exact words I believe are "One to two brigades".

So maybe he means 122?  This guy doesn't know anything about the military.


I'm voting for Saxby Chambliss!
by Jess81 on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 10:47:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Nobody (none / 0)

really has credibility on Iraq because no one knows what the fuck to do next.

There are no good options and any option has the risk and probability of being unpopular, at least at first.

I have one theory that gets me by on Iraq...that no one has flip-flopped and been more inconsistent on the Iraq war than the American people.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 08:30:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama is all over the map on Iraq (none / 0)

Please explain how so, or be outed as a McTroll. (As if you haven't been already.)

You can't because Obama has been completely consistent on Iraq as well as a number of other issues you and your ilk are using GOP attack points against the Democratic Party's nominee on.


by Beren on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 12:21:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama is all over the map on Iraq (none / 0)

Lori's not a troll.  She is a sincere poster who has contributed much to the discourse here throughout the long primary.  I don't always agree with her, as in this case, but she is sincere and respectful.


by Shaun Appleby on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 05:59:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

One is... (none / 0)

what one does.

lori is just a bitter dead-ender who wants to hurt Obama as much as possible in the idiotic hope that Clinton will get a redo in 2012 -- PUMA. But there's no practical difference in that and a McTroll.


by Beren on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 07:01:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: One is... (none / 0)

I sure hope not.  It's a big tent, they reckon, and Lori has been pretty active here for a long time.  Sure she was a dedicated Hillary supporter but that shouldn't disqualify her from having her opinion treated with a modicum of respect, at least from where I sit.


by Shaun Appleby on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 09:32:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: One is... (none / 0)

I can't respect the same old smear campaign from the primaries.


by Beren on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 09:41:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: One is... (none / 0)

Look, I take your point that there is a lot of inappropriate trolling masquerading as criticism here, I just don't see Lori as an intentional culprit.  If she is she's had me fooled for months.


by Shaun Appleby on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 10:00:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: One is... (none / 0)

lori posted the exact same vague and unsubstantiated attack on Obama's Iraq position during the primaries. Now it's just garden variety trolling.


by Beren on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 11:43:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sen Obama Vindicated on Iraq (2.00 / 1)

To add to that McCain's position is very clear he wants to stay in Iraq until we are recognized as the victors. He will never "surrender"


by Politicalslave on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 01:25:54 AM EST

Iraq wants us to leave. (none / 0)

Iraq wants a timetable.

Why can't ++++WE++++ have a timetable?

And let's not just address that question to Bush, because we can guess his answer.  We need to ask that of the rest of Democrats in Congress that have resisted the word timetable so hard because they can, feared that they would look "weak."  There is no more excuse.


by Dumbo on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 01:29:43 AM EST

It's a matter of intent (2.00 / 2)

McCain has made it clear -- he's not leaving until he can declare "victory" regardless of the cost.  Obama has made it clear -- the cost of the war in lives, suffering and to our economy is unacceptable.

It is ridiculous to think we can hold President Obama strictly to anything but commitment to his intent to end our involvement in Iraq as quickly as possible.  What that looks like depends on any number of factors -- conditions on the ground six months from now, what dumb stunts Bush may pull between now and then, how the Iraqi government responds in anticipation of a change in our administration.

Obama has made two things clear -- our troops must be withdrawn in the safest manner possible and our continued involvement there cannot be sustained.  Beyond that, I am delighted to see he intends to listen to the folks on the ground as to how to best achieve the goals he has campaigned on.


Sexism is real.
by grassrootsorganizer on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 07:27:02 AM EST

Re: Sen Obama Vindicated on Iraq (none / 0)

Dday over at Digby's blog has a much more nuanced position on Maliki's call for a timetable:

Nouri al-Maliki is trying to win an election. He wants to outflank the Sadrists who have been resisting the US occupation for some time. There have been massive demonstrations among the Shiite community to drive the occupiers out. It's significant that the NSA, Mouwaffak al-Rubaie, made his comments in the Shiite holy city of Najaf, and after discussions with the Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, no less.

But the actual withdrawal proposal put forth by Maliki and the Iraqi government is far less than it seems.

The Iraqi proposal stipulates that, once Iraqi forces have resumed security responsibility in all 18 of Iraq's provinces, U.S.-led forces would then withdraw from all cities in the country.

After that, the country's security situation would be reviewed every six months, for three to five years, to decide when U.S.-led troops would pull out entirely, al-Adeeb said.

The proposal, as outlined by al-Adeeb, is phrased in a way that would allow Iraqi officials to tell the Iraqi public that it includes a specific timetable and dates for a U.S. withdrawal.

However, it also would provide the United States some flexibility on timing because the dates of the provincial handovers are not set.

That's the key. This is a positioning document for al-Maliki, who wants to consolidate control in provincial elections. He's trying to prove that his rule has been successful and that he is not a puppet to the Americans. The other day he said that terrorism has been defeated in Iraq - it was his "Mission Accomplished" statement - as proof that he has been able to increase security all by himself.

The practical effect of the agreement described above is negligible. We've only handed over security responsibility in 9 of the 18 provinces to date. There's enough flexibility in this statement to hold off withdrawing all combat troops for potentially up to a decade. And 10 years is a long time and lots of things can change. This is an election-year "peace is at hand" statement that Maliki can wave around to the Iraqi public.

Some Context For The Iraq Timetable Remarks


"Who are you for? That is the wrong question. It should be who is for you?" HRC
by skohayes on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 09:08:33 AM EST

Re: Sen Obama Vindicated on Iraq (none / 0)

Quite true, but the withdrawal of US forces is clearly the star that Iraq is steering by, both for Makliki and his erstwhile political opponents, and we would do well to set a converging course.


by Shaun Appleby on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 10:06:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sen Obama Vindicated on Iraq (none / 0)

I'm not so sure. I think most of it is political posturing. Iraq is coming up on election season as well, and Maliki is trying to convince voters to reelect him.
What better way to do that than to pretend you aren't Bush's lap dog and you're going to get rid of the "elephant" in the room that has destroyed your country?
Maliki would be in power for about 5 minutes after the Americans left, IMHO.
OTOH, I think Obama should jump at this gift and get as many troops out as he can, before Maliki realizes his mistake.
"Who are you for? That is the wrong question. It should be who is for you?" HRC
by skohayes on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 02:15:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sen Obama Vindicated on Iraq (none / 0)

I agree that Maliki's manoeuvre is motivated by political survival but I am suggesting that his opponents would steer the same course, whether it is lip service or not, and that therefore it is a direction we can safely formalise with the Iraqi government, such as it is.  And that we should move towards this position ourselves as part of a formal solution, as you mentioned.


by Shaun Appleby on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 06:07:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sen Obama Vindicated on Iraq (2.00 / 2)

If Obama wins the general, the timetable which probably makes the most sense is the following: 1) announce that the US will be out of Iraq completely by 2012;  2) don't announce a timetable for withdrawal right away;  3) invest political capital and resources to ensure that Iraq's national election takes place at the end of 2009 as scheduled;  4) once a new Iraqi government is formed (and it's not clear that Maliki will be at the top of it) negotiate a fast exit (ie. 2 brigades a month);  5) the last US troops would leave Iraq at the end of 2010.

Withdraw any faster, and these Iraqi elections will probably never take place (and the result of that would likely be civil war or some sort of dictatorship).  Withdraw any slower and the US would probably never leave.  

And what's vexing is that many Dems who are strongly anti-war probably would consider the above policy to be some sort of betrayal, because Obama wouldn't be withdrawing all US troops as fast as possible.  

And, well, they're idiots.  Civil war in Iraq probably means a large war in the region, period.  Who thinks that wouldn't involve US troops on a larger scale than is occurring now?  

The situation dictates the timetable, but this national election in Iraq gives the US a perfect opportunity (one which McCain wouldn't take, because he thinks if the US has long-term bases in Iraq that would enhance its strategic position).

 


by IncognitoErgoSum on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 10:03:34 AM EST

Re: Sen Obama Vindicated on Iraq (none / 0)

Not to mention strike a diplomatic balance with Iran which permits such a plan, and facilitates postwar Iraqi sovereignty and stability as a majority Shi'ite state.


by Shaun Appleby on Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 10:10:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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