Over at OpenLeft, Chris looks at Rasmussen poll numbers showing a decrease in perception of Obama as liberal. From Rass:
During the Primary campaign season, Obama was viewed as politically liberal by an ever-increasing number of voters that grew to 67% by early June. However, since clinching the nomination, he has reversed that trend and is now seen as liberal by only 56%.Twenty-two percent (22%) characterize the Democrat as Very Liberal, down from 36% early last month.
Says Chris:
So, now that Obama is perceived as moving to the center, while McCain is still perceived as conservative, Obama's poll numbers should improve, right? Wrong. According to the daily tracking poll from the same polling firm, Rasmussen, the campaign has not changed at all as a result of Obama being perceived as less liberal:* Obama has been at 49% every single day since June 22nd
* Obama has been at 48%, 49% or 50% every single day since June 8th
* Obama has led by between 4-6% every day since June 23rd and in all but three days since June 11th. In the other three days, he twice led by 3%, and once led by 7%.
...
This is very strong proof, even scientific, that Obama's move to the center has not won him any votes, and that the perceived change in the ideological gap between Obama and McCain did not impact their relative vote share.
As much as I'd like to believe that Obama's recent triangulation hasn't been effective, I'm just not sure these numbers prove it. As we've looked at before, the strategy for Obama is a multi-state/multi-path tour to the nomination. Exactly which blocs of voters are we talking about? In which states?
I could just as easily argue (I won't) that since he's clinched the nomination, Obama's "tack to the center" has preserved his "bump" in the very same Rasmussen tracking poll, even when many expected it to be temporary.
Or I could just question the overall conventional wisdom about Obama "moving to the center" by pointing to his trip to Georgia today where he proposed revamping the terrible bankruptcy bill from 2005.
Point being, I guarantee that the Obama campaign doesn't gauge the success or failure of messaging by the rise and fall of top-line national tracking polls - this is a state-by-state, constituency-by-constituency race. And beyond that, I'm not sure the "left vs. Obama" storyline was one the campaign intentionally engineered to be national - the MyBo FISA group fed a lot of that narrative, for example.
As Poblano says:
(iii) Finally, as I argued last week, I don't think this is necessarily a strategy designed to maximize one's number of electoral votes, but rather one's chances of winning the majority of them. This is a risk-averse maneuver, designed to blockade McCain from certain tactical options that he might have wished to take later on.
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