Rasmussen, FiveThirtyEight, Electoral-Vote: Obama Has Strong Lead

by animated, Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 06:52:53 PM EST

Just a reminder that while McCain may have closed a handful of points in the Gallup tracking poll, Obama has a strong lead in every other poll or metric worth mentioning.

First, the Rasmussen tracking poll, remarkably, shows Obama maintaining his post-primary "bounce:"

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Barack Obama attracting 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 39%. When "leaners" are included, Obama holds a six-point advantage, 49% to 43%. This is the eighth straight day that Obama has enjoyed a lead of five-to-seven points.

Of course, what really matters are the state polls. One of the better analyzes out there is Nate Silver's over at FiveThirtyEight.com.

And, here's where he sees the race:

Electoral-vote is another great place to see where the state by state matchups stand. Here's where they have the race:

Obama 304   McCain 221   Ties 13

In other words, we should avoid overconfidence, but it's equally bad to cherrypick polls to prove a point.

As Chris Bowers notes, Obama's lead, on average, is signficantly greater than John Kerry's was in 2004:

Kerry's lead never reached 4% nationally, and actually peaked at around 3.0-3.5% in mid-May (post-Abu Ghraib and when he started running ads), and again from mid-July through mid-August (from the selection of Edwards through the start of swiftboating). In other words, Kerry's peaks in the 2004 election were never as large as Obama's current lead.

Bowers also has some thoughts on what Obama needs to do going forward:

The Obama campaign is clearly obsessed with maintaining a tight, top-down organizational and message structure...Let's hope that this top-down messaging includes a willingness to really attack McCain during the Democratic convention (and, of course, before and after the convention as well). Kerry's focus on positive messaging back in 2004 was one of the reasons he was left vulnerable to the Republican Noise Machine. While the campaign launched a "fight the smears" operation yesterday, pushing back isn't enough. As the old saying does, one of the best defenses is a good offense. If Obama can put McCain even more on the defensive than he already is, then he has the opportunity to build a truly substantial lead over the summer.




Tags: barack obama, john mccain (all tags)

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Re: Rasmussen, FiveThirtyEight, Electoral-Vote: Ob (none / 0)

Obama has a slight lead in Michigan, Ohio, if he were to lose both of these and not pick up virginia or NC he loses.

Thats not as large a lead as Kerry had.


by dtaylor2 on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 06:58:00 PM EST

Re: Rasmussen, FiveThirtyEight, Electoral-Vote: Ob (2.00 / 1)

I'm not sure... Poblano (I like to call him that still) indicates on his website that Kerry never had much of a lead over Bush. Obama is doing much better than Kerry so far.

Of course when people find out that a leading Obama supporter speaks French (and I refer to SG) Obama will be toast.


by french imp on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 07:12:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I don't speak french (none / 0)

I can read it and can kind of write it (I am extremely literal).

Poblano's old method worked really well in the primary I think this new method is faulty.


Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!
by Student Guy on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 07:17:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I don't speak french (none / 0)

That's intresting. Why do you think he's wrong in his new method?

I'd appreciate an answer in Sanskrit.


by french imp on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 07:22:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I feel it is too evenly spread (none / 0)

I agree national polling should have an effect on state races, but a perceived bump is going to be larger in a state like Massachusetts than it is in West Virginia.  I think recent polling results from Arkansas and Nevada show this.  Obama got a larger bump in Arkansas than Poblano's method predicted and a smaller bump in Nevada.  Hillary was very strong in Arkansas and wasn't very strong in Nevada.  I agree with the usage of the model in Ohio for instance but not in Virginia.

(As for Sanskrit, I have no idea how to type that let alone make coherent words or sentences)


Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!
by Student Guy on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 07:35:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yeah it is (none / 0)

Kerry never led in state by state polls...he only led in Ohio in a handful of polls, only led in Florida in less than a handful and without the two, he lost.

Obama is doing much better than Kerry.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 11:09:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I think that (none / 0)

Nate's latest change is way too optimistic. (hooray I am not speaking french anymore...).


Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!
by Student Guy on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 06:59:32 PM EST

Re: I think that (none / 0)

Was that French-speaking interlude another self-inflicted penance? ;)


by french imp on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 07:07:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

non (2.00 / 1)

Il a été apporté dessus par quelqu'un écriture dans l'Espagnol

(apologies if it is too literal, my knowledge of French grammar when out the window years ago).


Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!
by Student Guy on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 07:15:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: non (2.00 / 1)

Elitist!!! ;-)


It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)
by LordMike on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 08:41:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It just looks optimistic (none / 0)

But if the polls shift just a few degrees in a few of the jump-ball states, it quickly brings that 64% back down to 50%. He's handicapping the same way you do in sports. For this snapshot, assuming polling stays the same (which I'm sure he knows it won't) those are the odds based on the most current numbers.

Anyway, it looks pretty realistic to me. Some people are much more optimistic about, say, Texas, Montana, S. Carolina. It's really too early to tell, earlier polls when Hillary was in the mix really aren't reliable.


by 79blondini on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 08:28:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well he's clearly on the ropes. (2.00 / 1)

And we haven't even taken into account that pretty soon people are going to figure out that he's black.  Well, it was a good run while it lasted.

Oh wait.  He's ahead.  But it's June.

Gonna be a long slog of poll watching.  At least scoreboard watching during emerging pennant races is based on tangible performance...


The future is unwritten
by Strummerson on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 07:05:44 PM EST

Re: Rasmussen, FiveThirtyEight, Electoral-Vote: Ob (none / 0)

That guys predictions missed the mark in the primaries.

Best not to rely on him.

Since you are going to be posting rasmussens tracking polls , why don't you go the whole hog and post their breakdown of the map , its on the site.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 07:09:05 PM EST

Re: Rasmussen, FiveThirtyEight, Electoral-Vote: Ob (2.00 / 1)

Why do you say that? Poblano had a remarkable record on the contrary... and now Rassmussen is working with him!


by french imp on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 07:13:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen, FiveThirtyEight, Electoral-Vote: Ob (none / 0)

what exactly do you disagree with ?

he predicted obama would win north dakota , he lost


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 07:49:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen, FiveThirtyEight, Electoral-Vote: Ob (none / 0)

The only polling outfit in ND missed the mark by as much as his prediction did.


by Falsehood on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 07:53:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen, FiveThirtyEight, Electoral-Vote: Ob (none / 0)

That's your basis for saying he's not a good analyst? That was one state out of 50, where there was very little data available. I know you can do better than that...


by animated on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 07:57:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen, FiveThirtyEight, Electoral-Vote: Ob (none / 0)

If you want to go with his predictions go right ahead .

However if you are going to post rasmussen tracking numbers , you might as well post their electoral maps as well .

Its on the front page .

You can't miss it lol.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 08:06:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen, FiveThirtyEight, Electoral-Vote: Ob (none / 0)

Where is their map? Care to give a link?


by french imp on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 08:19:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen, FiveThirtyEight, Electoral-Vote: Ob (none / 0)

You can find the information yourself , do some reasearch on your own.

Its not that hard to find.

I anticipate your next question when you find your way over to the site is , you said map and I don't see one there.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 08:34:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen, FiveThirtyEight, Electoral-Vote: Ob (none / 0)

You said the map is on their main page; I don't see a map there. It's not a problem with me if I never see their map. If you think it is important for people like me to see it, then I suggest that you provide a link. But again, if you don't I'll survive.


by french imp on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 08:41:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen, FiveThirtyEight, Electoral-Vote: Ob (none / 0)

OK Lori, I understand you didn't mean they have a map. However Rasmussen has this:

Rasmussen Reports is pleased to announce that it will be including poll averages from FiveThirtyEight.com in its Balance of Power Calculator.

FiveThirtyEight.com has developed a model for averaging state-by-state polls based upon the timing of the poll, the reliability of the polling firm, and other factors. The site's name comes from the total number of Electoral College votes available to the Presidential candidates. Rasmussen Reports will aggregate the FiveThirtyEight.com averages and other data to provide a comprehensive assessment of the state-by-state race for the White House.

Scott Rasmussen, President of Rasmussen Reports, noted that "Nate Silver and fivethirtyeight.com are a great example of how the online community is improving election coverage. His quantitative approach is a welcome addition to the debate and a valuable resource for any serious electoral analyst or armchair campaign manager."

Silver said, "I'm thrilled to be working with Rasmussen Reports in this endeavor. In addition to being one of the most active and reliable pollsters, Scott and his team have made every effort to consider other sources of information in order to provide their readers with the most comprehensive electoral picture possible".

The FiveThirtyEight.com averages will be featured along with new polling data released this week by Rasmussen Reports (methodology).

In addition to the FiveThirtyEight.com average, data inputs for the Balance of Power Calculator include the latest Rasmussen Reports poll in a state, an average of the latest polling from other firms, Rasmussen Markets data, Intrade market data, the aggregated rankings of selected analysts, the state's voting history, and national trends. The weight given to each variable varies over time (i.e.--polls will be counted more heavily in October than today, a state's history will be counted more heavily today than in October).

Currently, the Balance of Power Calculator shows Barack Obama ahead in states with 200 Electoral College votes and John McCain leads in states with 189. When "leaners" are added, Obama leads 260-240.

So apparently Rasmussen considers Poblano as a collaborator. I'm sure they are more positive about his work than your posts were...


by french imp on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 08:53:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen, FiveThirtyEight, Electoral-Vote: Ob (none / 0)

It obviously drives you crazy to see Obama doing well in the polls, lori.

I wonder who you want to win.


by JoeW on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 09:19:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen, FiveThirtyEight, Electoral-Vote: Ob (none / 0)

You don't really wonder do you? I think that it's pretty obvious.
by Gene In PA on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 10:32:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen, FiveThirtyEight, Electoral-Vote: Ob (none / 0)

That's your basis for saying he's not a good analyst?

- I didn't say that .

However like I said you can rely on him if you want , its your choice.

I was just curious why you posted rasmussen tracking numbers and not their electoral map .

Whatever rocks your boat anyway.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 08:10:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen, FiveThirtyEight, Electoral-Vote: Ob (none / 0)

That guys predictions missed the mark in the primaries.

Best not to rely on him.

Just wondering why you hold that opinion. By all accounts, the guy's methodology has been dead on in most cases.


by animated on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 08:21:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ummm (none / 0)

he won North Dakota... with 61%.


by Tatan on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 08:34:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ummm (none / 0)

Yes, the problem with Poblano's methodology is that it that the north gets mixed up with the south, and the rudder with the bowsprit, sometimes...


by french imp on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 08:43:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen, FiveThirtyEight, Electoral-Vote: Ob (none / 0)

Is 548 trying to re-invent the EV?

Seriously, what's with the decimal procedure. Someone tell him its only winner take all. The proportional system ended with the primaries.


by Jerome Armstrong on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 08:01:46 PM EST

Re: Rasmussen, FiveThirtyEight, Electoral-Vote: Ob (2.00 / 1)

It's an average, hence the decimal points.


by Captain Bathrobe on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 08:12:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen, FiveThirtyEight, Electoral-Vote: Ob (2.00 / 1)

No, it's that after cutting delegates in halves,
Obama intends to mince electors in tenths...
by french imp on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 08:47:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen, FiveThirtyEight, Electoral-Vote: Ob (none / 0)

Poblano explains his procedure in much detail. Interesting reading. And some professional pollster are very much interested in and admirative of his methods.


by french imp on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 08:22:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rasmussen, FiveThirtyEight, Electoral-Vote: Ob (none / 0)

Because it's an acknowledgment of uncertainty. The EV estimate is one of several metrics used to distill the results of his somewhat-complex simulation into more easily understood terms. TO be precise, I'm guessing that the EV numbers are chosen to minimize the average error between that estimate and his 10,000 daily virtual elections.


The primaries are over!
Focus on McCain
by really not a troll on Mon Jun 16, 2008 at 12:39:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Here's the deal: (none / 0)

I wrote this earlier today:

Barack Obama still has his share of problems.  There are many voters -- particularly men -- who do not agree with his values, his lifestyle, etc.  Barack Obama must convince these kinds of people that they can be comfortable with him culturally.

That said, the elephant in the room is George W. Bush.  That is John McCain's 200 pound ball-and-chain hanging around his leg, and what prevents the voters from elevating him to majority status.

I'd rather have Barack Obama's problems than have John McCain's problems, but that still means Barack Obama has a significant amount of work to do before the voters are willing to elevate him to majority status.  Saying he's not John McCain and/or George W. Bush will get Barack Obama a significant percentage of the electorate, but it won't elevate him to majority status.  Barack Obama still has to convince voters that in addition to being a change agent, he is a safe choice -- both ideologically and culturally.  That will elevate Barack Obama and Democrats to majority status.


by Brad G on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 08:19:59 PM EST

Great diary! Rec'd. (none / 0)

There is talk about a repeat of 2000, when Gore won the popular vote but lost the electoral college.  I think I read it Politico.  Some GOP operatives were saying that there would be big AA turnout in the south that would drive up Obama's PV total, but would not be enough to swing the states away from McCain.  


Another Clintonista against John McCain
by psychodrew on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 08:31:06 PM EST

Re: Rasmussen, FiveThirtyEight, Electoral-Vote: Ob (none / 0)

The fact that he predicts that Obama will only win the popular vote by less than 3% scares the [censored] out of me!  WTF?  Considering the source, I'm panicking!  This is the first time that I've even the considered the possibility of losing...  This doesn't make any sense!


It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)
by LordMike on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 08:39:31 PM EST

How big did you think (none / 0)

Obama was going to win the popular vote?

51%-48% sounds about right.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 11:11:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How big did you think (none / 0)

At least 10 points at a minimum... this was supposed to be a blowout election!  Even my wingnut friends have felt that Obama wins in a massive blowout, while Hillary would have maybe squeaked by... now, Obama's winning the squeaker?  WTH????


It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)
by LordMike on Mon Jun 16, 2008 at 12:13:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How big did you think (2.00 / 1)

In modern history, general election "blowouts" are around 7 points, look in the 80's and at Clinton vs. Dole. You don't get too many double digits wins in the popular vote. You could win the popular vote by 3 points and still nuke someone in the electoral vote.


Hillary supporter for Barack Obama in 2008
by zcflint05 on Mon Jun 16, 2008 at 12:27:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Neither candidate will win a blowout (none / 0)

against McCain.

Sorry, McCain picks off voters who should vote Democrat. Either would squeak past McCain...if they win at all.

Welcome back to earth man, I'd be surprised if we know who won this election by Wednesday, November 5th at noon.

Either with Obama or Clinton.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Mon Jun 16, 2008 at 01:29:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

obama will win (none / 0)

this is fun to do, but honestly:

mccain is a horrible candidate.

the media is "all in" for obama. there is no turning back now.

The ingredients are all mixed and the cake is ready to be put in the oven.

it doesn't make sense to bake the cake today. The election is still off in the future.

But on election day, obama will have max dem. turnout, republicans will not be able to match.

The landslide theory is looking much better than a squeaker.

Good money should be put on Red states turning blue.

We should focus on, "now what questions", so we're not doing that after the election from a stand still.


by yellowdem1129 on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 09:56:28 PM EST

Re: obama will win (none / 0)

I do hope that you're right yd, the suspense of the next five months may just kill me.
by Gene In PA on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 10:34:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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