I'm spotting a trend of young smalltown folks from Ron Paul to Obama. Looking at 25 of the Myspace friends of my 2006 Senate run who'd put Paul on "Top Friends," 8 now list Obama above Paul, 4 have dropped Paul completely, now list Obama.

1st (Ryan) narrow Obama, 3-3

2nd (Baldwin) Obama 5-3. I'm hearing a lot of 6-2 locally, but I don't buy it. Clinton's rescheduled visit for tonight is firewall on the 6th delegate. She loses Madison in a rout, but breaks even in the burbs.

3d (Kind) Obama UPGRADE from 3-3 to 60% chance of 4-2. based on reports from the ground in rural Counties especially Trempeleau, Pierce, and along the Kickapoo, plus the success of Obama's visit to Eau Claire. LaCrosse narrow Obama. fairly large campus, but also a lot of elderly. Congressman Kind's said he'll cast his SD vote with the district winner.

4th: (Moore) Obama likely 3-3, big turnout favors an Obama delegate split, as Clinton's support from public employee Unions is diluted. 20% chance Obama 4-2. Clinton's spontaneous weather-dictated appearances at cafes and the El Rey hispanic grocery were probably more effective for her than a conbventional "event."

5th (Sensenbrenner) Clinton 3-2, on prochoice Republican womens' crossover NO CHANGE

6th (Petri) Obama, 3-2, I'm becoming confident on this one. UPGRADE OBAMA

7th (Obey) Obama, Dicey as to whether he makes the 4-2 split. He romped in Duluth, and the Eau Claire and Stevens Point campuses had monster turnout in `06. Eau Claire County straddles the District line. now 70% chance of the 4-2. UPGRADE OBAMA

8th (Kagen) 6 delegates. Tossup. Was lean Clinton UPGRADE OBAMA. Kagen's also said he'll cast his SD with the District's voters. Clinton's in De Pere now to hold this one.