Certainly much of the difference in support for Feingold and Kerry can be traced to familiarity, especially since Russ has been maintaining a rigorous schedule of listening sessions in every one of the States' 72 Counties each of his 12 years in office.

Another edge comes from his vote against the Assault Weapons Ban in a strong pro-gun State. Too late for Kerry to fix this. (76% of Wisconsin voters approved a Constiutional Amrendment making the Right to Keep and Bear Arms explicitly an individual right in 1998.)

The McCain association also helps Feingold with Republican moderates not impressed with Michels' Primary season ads, scripted to the GOP right. (The poll was held a few days after the Primary. Michels had 3 opponents, Feingold none.)

Kerry's "Lambert Field" gaffe came during the Badger Poll's window, so these numbers reflect its peak impact.

The most interesting segment, I'm afraid to try and quantify just yet, would be supporters of divided government. They distrust both Parties, expect Bush to be re-elected, and want a strong Democratic presence in the Congress to check Bush's excesses. I have a hunch this group is larger than credited, not just in Wisconsin, but throughout the country.

Even after subtracting for the above factors, I conclude Kerry's failed to define himself. There's been lots of Bio, and Bush attacks, but too little  program, a vision of America under a Kerry Administration.

(rewritten from my diary at dkos)

Poll Divided Government voters nationally <1% 1%-3% 3%-5% >5% Votes: 9 Results : Vote Link : Polls